Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 13.049570 14.758933 16.747099 19.266530 22.428485 26.343896 31.692029
2024-10-06 10.998160 13.057073 15.652480 19.271458 24.380467 31.683597 43.692143
2024-10-13 9.468738 11.549055 14.294700 18.349695 24.522019 34.267817 52.760794
2024-10-20 8.332742 10.349075 13.094778 17.317147 24.109209 35.694196 60.508016
2024-10-27 7.495980 9.440133 12.152616 16.460261 23.711216 36.927913 68.601636
2024-11-03 7.610902 9.846712 13.118827 18.666326 28.950122 50.753095 120.614788
2024-11-10 7.400504 9.751393 13.307418 19.625504 32.224215 62.480614 191.800267
2024-11-17 6.826343 9.059246 12.480982 18.676123 31.409827 63.712493 223.414199
2024-11-24 6.488192 8.696893 12.144081 18.555779 32.332522 70.334189 312.181387
2024-12-01 6.162150 8.327060 11.756844 18.280558 32.838195 76.121946 435.857566
2024-12-08 5.914153 8.060561 11.515519 18.247662 33.911823 84.732244 703.098711
2024-12-15 5.733895 7.887725 11.415390 18.476047 35.708590 97.865394 1525.726864
2024-12-22 5.455459 7.554947 11.037138 18.145524 36.131427 106.751977 3684.296078
2024-12-29 5.251472 7.331026 10.833029 18.156810 37.547691 122.849126 70539.864962
2025-01-05 4.947534 6.923962 10.268134 17.315353 36.247864 122.784845 NaN
2025-01-12 4.653199 6.518991 9.682392 16.370549 34.452091 118.505208 NaN
2025-01-19 4.401438 6.174333 9.187729 15.584433 33.013079 115.755236 NaN
2025-01-26 4.531074 6.474776 9.898239 17.604559 41.229531 201.847723 NaN
2025-02-02 4.502618 6.502370 10.097805 18.479159 46.164816 294.760710 NaN
2025-02-09 4.285332 6.190328 9.617288 17.613503 44.081886 283.773520 NaN
2025-02-16 4.162575 6.038996 9.443276 17.503617 45.061372 331.651385 NaN
2025-02-23 4.033016 5.869878 9.223565 17.252180 45.391520 373.712837 NaN
2025-03-02 3.933805 5.750171 9.094773 17.222114 46.699994 455.910095 NaN